Ep. 202 - Is the Bond Market Signaling Future Fed Rate Cuts?

In Episode 202, we dive into the latest trends in the U.S. housing market, focusing on the surge in mortgage demand and its implications. Together, we analyze recent data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Index, revealing five consecutive weeks of increased purchase demand. The episode explores the significance of this trend, as 2024 mortgage applications surpass 2023 levels for the first time. We also analyze the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index reaching a new high, indicating strong home price appreciation despite previous market challenges. The show also examines the narrowing spread on the 10-year Treasury and its potential impact on mortgage rates. Additionally, we address the upcoming changes in conforming loan limits and the inclusion of trigger lead regulations in the National Defense Authorization Act. Throughout the episode, we shared with you insights into the current state of the housing market, offering valuable perspectives for both industry professionals and potential homebuyers.

[00:00] - Introduction and episode overview

[01:30] - Analysis of recent mortgage application trends

[03:47] - CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index and price appreciation

[07:08] - 10-year Treasury spread and implications for mortgage rates

[08:13] - Upcoming changes in conforming loan limits

[10:49] - Trigger lead regulations and consumer protection

Key Quotes:

"The bond market has figured this thing out from a perspective of it's no longer about inflation... What they figured out is this data in regards to unemployment rates. That's where the real issue is." - Quinton Harris

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