Ep. 140 - Will The 2024 Presidential Election Bring Lower Interest Rates? | Lending Update Pt. 2

Will the 2024 presidential election lead to lower interest rates? In part two of this lending update, Quinton and Daniel analyze whether the upcoming election could spur rate cuts, just as rates have fallen in past election years. They discuss the Fed's outlook amid fragile optimism in markets, signs of labor weakness, and differences between key inflation measures. With forecasts predicting everything from rate hikes to reductions in 2024, Quinton and Daniel evaluate if election year pressures could tip the scales towards lower rates for hopeful homebuyers.

[00:00 - 00:52] - Introduction

[00:53 - 03:00] - Fragile market expectations for rate cuts

[03:01 - 05:58] - CPI vs. PCE inflation measures

[05:59 - 08:16] - Residual seasonality in inflation

[08:17 - 10:36] - Labor market statistics showing weakness

[10:37 - 13:22] - Rates correlation with election years

[13:23 - 18:55] - Forecasts and expectations for rates in 2024

[18:56 - 21:56] - Housing market seasonality around elections

[21:57 - 24:52] - Conclusion

Lending Update Resource:
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https://howtogetthebestrate.com

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Key Quote:
"Any logical person could say there is weakness in the labor market." - Daniel Halvorsen

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